Tonight’s mayoral debate is one of two opportunities for Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa to derail Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic Socialist whom many of New York’s political establishment are treating as the presumptive next mayor. Cuomo’s task is uniquely fraught: he must disqualify Mamdani as too radical or inexperienced without alienating Democratic voters in a city that overwhelmingly leans blue. At the same time, he’ll try to persuade Republicans and conservatives that he — not Sliwa — is the only plausible brake on a left-wing takeover. Not an easy balance.
Occasionally, a debate actually does change the course of a campaign — just ask Joe Biden. And even if nobody implodes in the 7:00 pm face-off at 30 Rock, debates matter for another reason: they put candidates on the record. They elicit commitments and draw out key policy points that can shape a mayoralty or a presidency.
Here are six things I’ll be watching for:
How will Mamdani handle the pressure? The Democratic Socialist will really be on defense for the first time. The primary debates featured half a dozen progressives ganging up on Cuomo. Now, there’s no doubt about who the frontrunner is, and no other progressives on stage, just a ferocious Cuomo (will he set aside his disdain and pronounce Mamdani’s name right?) and the unflappable Sliwa. Can Mamdani be rattled? Does he get angry? Does he seem ready for the pressure of one of America’s hardest jobs?
A strongman versus “co-governance”: Cuomo embodies centralized control and machine politics. Mamdani promises to decentralize power, lean on community councils, and delegate authority. This is more than far left vs. center right — these are competing models of municipal authority. Viewers may gravitate toward one or the other, or they may prefer Sliwa’s gritty pragmatism — but they ought to get a clear contrast.
Public safety: Mamdani needs to convince the general public that his focus on creating a new Community Safety Department will not, in fact, lead to more disorder in the city. Does he plan strict quality of life enforcement, or will misdemeanors not be a high priority for his police department allowing it, in his words, to “focus on serious crimes”? Will Cuomo acknowledge his mistake in allowing criminal justice reforms to go as far as they did while he was governor and manage to flip the script?
Will universal childcare keep gathering steam? Universal childcare from six weeks on is by far Mamdani’s most expensive and expansive policy promise. On Monday, Governor Kathy Hochul appeared with Mamdani and said she supports the program — though she is unlikely to back the tax hikes he wants to pay for it. Cuomo proposes universal childcare for three-year-olds. The debate could see Cuomo paint Mamdani’s childcare program as a pie-in-the-sky overreach that the city can’t afford — or it could see him lend it credibility and momentum. After De Blasio’s universal Pre-K for four-year-olds, this is the next big proposed expansion of New York’s government, and the debate will help determine whether it happens.
What will Mamdani say on schools. Mamdani still has not articulated a meaningful education policy for the country’s largest school system, which will be under his direct control, other than eliminating accelerated tracks in the early grades – a controversial proposal among parents in a system where there is a vast difference between well and poorly performing schools, even at the elementary school level. Will he attack charter schools? This is an opportunity for Cuomo and Sliwa, who both want to expand them, to put him on the record on these issues.
What about President Trump: Mamdani has cast Cuomo as Trump’s puppet. But some New Yorkers fear that Mamdani will make an easy target for Trump — and won’t be strong enough to stand up to him. Watch closely to see how both handle this dynamic: How far will Mamdani go in denouncing the president? How will Cuomo distance himself from Trump without alienating Trump voters he needs to win? Sliwa, meanwhile, ought to be Trump’s candidate, but they’ve never gotten along, and Trump recently dismissed him as a lightweight cat lover: “We don’t need thousands of cats,” the president (really) said. So it’s a bit hard to know where Sliwa goes with this one!
One thing’s for sure: The president, a New Yorker by birth, will be watching — and it’s easy to imagine something that’s said Thursday night coming back to haunt the mayor, and the city.