How New York Survives Its Mayors
The city’s strength lies in its systems and resilience, not just its leaders.
Zohran Mamdani, a self-described socialist, will be sworn in as mayor on January 1 with a narrow mandate: he won 50.4% of the vote in an election marked by unusually high turnout.
That slim margin shows just how uneasy the over two million New Yorkers who voted feel about what his victory will mean for a deeply divided city. Pre-election polling showed voters held strong, polarized opinions of both major candidates, and the returns bear that out (interactive maps: general election returns and primary returns).
Since the primary, Mamdani expanded his coalition among the city’s poorest residents, including in neighborhoods that backed Andrew Cuomo in June, by promising free buses, government grocery stores, rent freezes, and universal childcare. His core support, however, as Manhattan Institute president Reihan Salam observes, remains among the extremely progressive “downwardly mobile elites” who see in Mamdani’s campaign a reflection of their own frustrations.
Mamdani failed to win over much of the city’s middle class — the pragmatic voters who have long anchored New York’s stability and success. Many lifelong New Yorkers, having seen the city through good and bad cycles, reluctantly cast their ballots for Cuomo. So did most of the city’s Republicans and independents, as well as Orthodox Jewish communities who, despite being among New York’s poorest residents, remain wary of the left’s posture toward public safety and religious tolerance. That said, Mamdani’s core districts turned out much larger numbers of voters than Cuomo’s, sealing his victory.
Mamdani does not have a sweeping mandate, and it remains to be seen who will be in his administration, but outright panic is misplaced: New York’s foundation is built on guardrails built during past crises, and if we’ve learned anything about the city, it is that it can survive the errors of its local government.
Fifty years ago last week, the famous Daily News headline — “FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD” — marked President Gerald Ford’s refusal of unconditional aid for a nearly insolvent New York. The city had been spending for years more than it could afford, expecting state or federal aid to fill the gap, and failing that — borrowing — until the banks had finally refused.
By October 30, under Governor Hugh Carey’s leadership, the state had created the Municipal Assistance Corporation (MAC) to restructure city debt, and the Legislature in Albany had enacted the Financial Emergency Act, which set terms and conditions for a state board to take control of city budgeting until deficits were eliminated. Those guardrails are still in place, a backstop of fiscal discipline and oversight still in effect today.
And so not even the most profligate New York mayor will be permitted to repeat Mayor John Lindsay’s fiscal mistakes. Today’s mayor must balance the budget, cannot borrow for operations, and works under constant state and market scrutiny.
The City Council approves all new laws and can override a mayoral veto by a two-thirds vote, which, however, given how progressive the council is, may be of limited value in reigning in the budget. Albany controls major levers: rent regulation, income and sales tax authority, the MTA, and school governance. Even property tax changes face state scrutiny, though NYC is exempt from the statewide cap. Mayoral control over schools remains subject to Albany renewal, next expiring in 2026.
Within these constraints, the mayor can manage, prioritize, and persuade, but not exactly reinvent the city, with the exception of public safety, over which the mayor has the most control. It will be Mamdani’s handling of crime and order, along with provision of basic services, that will shape confidence in the city more than any ideological agenda. An increase in crime can break a mayoralty fast.
But guardrails do not guarantee discipline. As MI’s E.J. McMahon warns, the spending habits that fueled the 1970s crisis — spending above recurring revenue, expanding payrolls, deferring costs — have resurfaced. The city’s budget for FY 2026 is a record $116 billion, and municipal headcount is around 285,000 and increasing. Structural gaps are approaching at least $17 billion over the next four years if current trends persist. The state and city comptroller’s offices both have said those gaps could grow more than twice as large, including a possible shortfall of more than $4 billion in the current fiscal year.
McMahon highlights how prosperity has bred a sense of “aversion to limits.” A sprawling network of tax-subsidized nonprofits, which didn’t exist a half-century ago, relentlessly lobbies for higher spending and organizes progressive advocacy. Nearly a quarter of NYC’s private jobs now involve health care and social assistance, doubling the share since the 1990s and fueling much of post-pandemic job growth. Municipal labor unions remain as powerful as ever.
The risk isn’t outright bankruptcy — modern budget rules make that nearly impossible — but a recession could catalyze a painful fiscal adjustment. Balanced-budget statutes prevent collapse; they do not ensure political prudence or easy recovery.
New York has survived near-bankruptcy, crime waves, recessions, and a pandemic. Each crisis inspired predictions of its demise; each time, the city rebounded.
That’s largely because this isn’t a government-centric city. It is, as MTA chief Janno Lieber told the New York Editorial Board, “a business city” whose “success and dynamism is based on private-sector business.”
And it’s very hard for the mayor to ruin the dynamic global economy that flows through New York City, which is largely unregulated by the municipal government and rarely touches City Hall. It’s not totally impossible, of course — ever higher taxes, or collapsing public safety would certainly hurt. As Reihan Salam writes:
What the Mamdani coalition has failed to reckon with, however, is that Gotham’s slide towards socialism lite has not been without consequences. The financial industry’s employment share has slowly shrunk as firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley hedge their bets by expanding their footprint in Dallas and Atlanta. New York’s share of the nation’s millionaires has declined by 30 percent since 2010.
But it’s worth taking comfort in the knowledge that we can survive, if not thrive, under just about any mayor. The city’s strength lies in its economy, its systems, and its resilience, not in City Hall.
More:
What Can Mamdani Really Do?
“Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s mayor elect, built his campaign on simple ideas. Freeze the rent. Free buses. City-run grocery stores. You know, free stuff. It was a powerful message for the 1,036,051 voters who handed him his victory on Tuesday, buoyed by the insane price of life in the Big Apple,” MI’s John Ketcham and Charles Fain Lehman write in Pirate Wires.
But can Mamdani actually do what he’s promised?
You omit the contributions of the municipal unions whose financial contributions saved the City from bankruptcy.
Makes sense to me. Small typo: "of limited value in reigning in the budget." REINING in, no 'g'