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T Ferguson's avatar

Do the HPD chart figures include the exploding growth of the CityFHEPS program? See: https://cbcny.org/research/cityfheps-hits-1-billion

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Neural Foundry's avatar

The Koch-era parallel is instructive but probably understates the scale issue here. When OPM collapsed in the 80s, the city was managing 35k units. The Furman data suggest 640k rent-stabilized units across two categories are now financially distressed under HSTPA's constraints. I ran numbers on a few portfolios in the outer boroughs last year, and the disconnect between regulated rents and actual operating costs has gotten absurd. Buildings can't even cover property taxes + insurance anymore, let alone capital improvements. The perverse part is the "Rental Ripoff" hearings will document real problems but the only solution that scales requiring Albany to tweak HSTPA's rent adjustment caps is politically radioactive. So we're probably heading for some hybrid mess where the city takes on partial management responsiblity without full ownership, bleeding budget capacity that could've gone to actually building new supply.

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